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Peter Creed v Jamie Ruggiero (Thu 05 Dec 2019)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-4,11-1,11-0.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 25,471, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for Jamie Ruggiero: 9,839, level confidence: 59%.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 159% better than Jamie Ruggiero.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 87% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 560% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 560% better than Jamie Ruggiero in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Creed actually played at a level of 40,670 and Jamie Ruggiero at a level of 6,162. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 60% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 34% and 34% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to +34% and Jamie Ruggiero changes to -30%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes +6.9% and for Jamie Ruggiero becomes -7.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Florida Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Peter Creed is limited to +6% and Jamie Ruggiero is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 74%, Jamie Ruggiero: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 46%, Jamie Ruggiero: 48%.

A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 27,009, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for Jamie Ruggiero: 9,483, level confidence: 48%.