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Mazen Gamal v Amr Arafa (Thu 05 Dec 2019)

Match won by Mazen Gamal. Result: 11-8,8-11,11-2,11-1.

Starting level for Mazen Gamal: 26,462, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Amr Arafa: 11,225, level confidence: 10%.
Mazen Gamal to win as he is currently playing 136% better than Amr Arafa.

Mazen Gamal won 75% of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 86% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mazen Gamal played 45% better than Amr Arafa in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mazen Gamal was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 18,268 and 26,462 without affecting his level.

As Mazen Gamal has played below his allowed range at 17,258, his level reduction is 5.9% before damping. On the assumption that Mazen Gamal would normally have been playing at level 21,987 (based on typical behaviour), Amr Arafa played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.8% and 10.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mazen Gamal changes to -0.6% and Amr Arafa changes to +10.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mazen Gamal becomes -0.2% and for Amr Arafa becomes +3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Florida Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mazen Gamal: 80%, Amr Arafa: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mazen Gamal: 63%, Amr Arafa: 25%.

Final level for Mazen Gamal: 26,400, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Amr Arafa: 11,578, level confidence: 25%.