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Faraz Khan v Chris Hanson (Wed 04 Dec 2019)

Match won by Faraz Khan. Result: 11-8,13-11,11-4.

Starting level for Faraz Khan: 20,354, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Hanson: 31,194, level confidence: 63%.
Chris Hanson to win as he is currently playing 53% better than Faraz Khan.

Faraz Khan won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Faraz Khan played 53% better than Chris Hanson in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Faraz Khan actually played at a level of 31,179 and Chris Hanson at a level of 20,364. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 53% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 41% and 41% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Faraz Khan changes to +34% and Chris Hanson changes to -41%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Faraz Khan becomes +7.2% and for Chris Hanson becomes -7.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Securian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Faraz Khan is limited to +6.5% and Chris Hanson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Faraz Khan: 87%, Chris Hanson: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Faraz Khan: 57%, Chris Hanson: 52%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Faraz Khan: 21,645, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Chris Hanson: 29,676, level confidence: 52%.