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Declan Christie v Chris Simpson (Wed 04 Dec 2019)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 10-12,4-11,9-11.

Starting level for Declan Christie: 10,060, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Simpson: 37,096, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 269% better than Declan Christie.

Chris Simpson won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 50% better than Declan Christie in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Simpson was taking it easy by anything up to 31%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 15,842 and 37,096 without affecting his level.

As Chris Simpson has played below his allowed range at 15,472, his level reduction is 2.4% before damping. On the assumption that Chris Simpson would normally have been playing at level 25,416 (based on typical behaviour), Declan Christie played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 30%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.2% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to -1.2% and Declan Christie changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes -0.5% and for Declan Christie becomes +4.1%.

Given Chris Simpson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 65% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Declan Christie's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 17% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Chris Simpson is 0% and for Declan Christie is +2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 84%, Declan Christie: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 53%, Declan Christie: 55%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan Christie: 10,347, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Chris Simpson: 37,108, level confidence: 53%.