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Hollie Naughton v Lwamba Chileshe (Wed 04 Dec 2019)

Match won by Lwamba Chileshe. Result: 4-11,11-7,5-11,8-11.

Starting level for Hollie Naughton: 7,894, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lwamba Chileshe: 16,587, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Lwamba Chileshe to win as he is currently playing 110% better than Hollie Naughton.

Lwamba Chileshe won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lwamba Chileshe played 31% better than Hollie Naughton in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lwamba Chileshe was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 11,906 and 16,587 without affecting his level.

As Lwamba Chileshe has played below his allowed range at 11,092, his level reduction is 7.3% before damping. On the assumption that Lwamba Chileshe would normally have been playing at level 14,314 (based on typical behaviour), Hollie Naughton played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lwamba Chileshe changes to -4.2% and Hollie Naughton changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lwamba Chileshe becomes -1.6% and for Hollie Naughton becomes +3.8%.

Given Lwamba Chileshe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 33% has been applied to his level change.

Given Hollie Naughton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.9% has been applied to her level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Lwamba Chileshe is -0.9% and for Hollie Naughton is +2.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lwamba Chileshe: 91%, Hollie Naughton: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lwamba Chileshe: 72%, Hollie Naughton: 66%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hollie Naughton: 8,118, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Lwamba Chileshe: 16,478, level confidence: 72%.