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Joel Makin v Adrain Waller (Sun 01 Dec 2019)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-6,11-5,4-11,11-9.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 51,513, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Adrain Waller: 49,552, level confidence: 62%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Adrain Waller.

Joel Makin won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 23% better than Adrain Waller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of 56,064 and Adrain Waller at a level of 45,530. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.8% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +6.3% and Adrain Waller changes to -8.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +1.7% and for Adrain Waller becomes -2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Kent Canterbury Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 93%, Adrain Waller: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 85%, Adrain Waller: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 52,278, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Adrain Waller: 48,632, level confidence: 72%.