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Nafizwan Adnan v Natthakit Jivasuwan (Wed 13 Nov 2019)

Match won by Nafizwan Adnan. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Nafizwan Adnan: 31,166, level confidence: 26%.
Starting level for Natthakit Jivasuwan: 5,990, level confidence: 48%.
Nafizwan Adnan to win as he is currently playing 420% better than Natthakit Jivasuwan.

Nafizwan Adnan won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nafizwan Adnan played 74% better than Natthakit Jivasuwan in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Nafizwan Adnan was taking it easy by anything up to 43%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,984 and 31,166 without affecting his level.

In this case, Nafizwan Adnan played at level 13,547 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Nafizwan Adnan would normally have been playing at level 17,639 (based on typical behaviour), Natthakit Jivasuwan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 30%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nafizwan Adnan changes to 0% and Natthakit Jivasuwan changes to +6.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nafizwan Adnan becomes 0% and for Natthakit Jivasuwan becomes +2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Singapore Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nafizwan Adnan: 51%, Natthakit Jivasuwan: 69%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nafizwan Adnan: 29%, Natthakit Jivasuwan: 40%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nafizwan Adnan: 31,119, level confidence: 29%.
Final level for Natthakit Jivasuwan: 6,140, level confidence: 40%.