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Donna Lobban v Hollie Naughton (Wed 27 Nov 2019)

Match won by Donna Lobban. Result: 11-5,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Donna Lobban: 9,392, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Hollie Naughton: 8,103, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Donna Lobban to win as she is currently playing 16% better than Hollie Naughton.

Donna Lobban won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Donna Lobban played 74% better than Hollie Naughton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Donna Lobban actually played at a level of 11,497 and Hollie Naughton at a level of 6,619. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Donna Lobban changes to +21% and Hollie Naughton changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Donna Lobban becomes +5.7% and for Hollie Naughton becomes -5.7%.

Given Donna Lobban's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to her level change.

Given Hollie Naughton's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to her level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Donna Lobban is +3.7% and for Hollie Naughton is -3.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Donna Lobban: 87%, Hollie Naughton: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Donna Lobban: 71%, Hollie Naughton: 72%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Donna Lobban: 9,762, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Hollie Naughton: 7,961, level confidence: 72%.