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Alfredo Avila v Naveed Rehman (Thu 21 Nov 2019)

Match won by Alfredo Avila. Result: 11-4,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Alfredo Avila: 28,374, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Naveed Rehman: 9,029, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Alfredo Avila to win as he is currently playing 214% better than Naveed Rehman.

Alfredo Avila won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alfredo Avila played 83% better than Naveed Rehman in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Alfredo Avila was taking it easy by anything up to 26%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 15,555 and 28,374 without affecting his level.

In this case, Alfredo Avila played at level 18,648 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Alfredo Avila would normally have been playing at level 21,009 (based on typical behaviour), Naveed Rehman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila changes to 0% and Naveed Rehman changes to +7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila becomes 0% and for Naveed Rehman becomes +2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Saskatoon Boast Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alfredo Avila: 84%, Naveed Rehman: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alfredo Avila: 64%, Naveed Rehman: 64%.

Final level for Alfredo Avila: 28,374, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Naveed Rehman: 9,255, level confidence: 64%.