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Jan Van Den Herrewegen v Peter Creed (Thu 21 Nov 2019)

Match won by Jan Van Den Herrewegen. Result: 6-11,12-10,11-4,11-5.

Starting level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 33,035, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 25,900, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Peter Creed.

Jan Van Den Herrewegen won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 33% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jan Van Den Herrewegen played 28% better than Peter Creed in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jan Van Den Herrewegen actually played at a level of 33,061 and Peter Creed at a level of 25,880. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to 0% and Peter Creed changes to 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 85%, Peter Creed: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 85%, Peter Creed: 84%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 33,099, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 26,001, level confidence: 84%.