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Marwan Elshorbagy v Eain Yow Ng (Thu 21 Nov 2019)

Match won by Marwan Elshorbagy. Result: 11-9,11-6,5-11,11-6.

Starting level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 56,226, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 39,826, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Marwan Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Eain Yow Ng.

Marwan Elshorbagy won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marwan Elshorbagy played 23% better than Eain Yow Ng in this match.

As Marwan Elshorbagy has played below his allowed range at 50,551, his level reduction is 3.2% before damping. On the assumption that Marwan Elshorbagy would normally have been playing at level 54,172 (based on typical behaviour), Eain Yow Ng played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 4.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marwan Elshorbagy changes to -2.7% and Eain Yow Ng changes to +3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marwan Elshorbagy becomes -1% and for Eain Yow Ng becomes +1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Channel Vas Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marwan Elshorbagy: 88%, Eain Yow Ng: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marwan Elshorbagy: 82%, Eain Yow Ng: 87%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 55,577, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 40,459, level confidence: 87%.