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Mathieu Castagnet v Iker Pajares Bernabeu (Wed 20 Nov 2019)

Match won by Mathieu Castagnet. Result: 11-2,4-11,12-10,11-5.

Starting level for Mathieu Castagnet: 42,725, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 40,916, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Mathieu Castagnet to win as he is currently playing 4% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu.

Mathieu Castagnet won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mathieu Castagnet played 29% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mathieu Castagnet actually played at a level of 47,402 and Iker Pajares Bernabeu at a level of 36,879. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet changes to +10.7% and Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to -9.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mathieu Castagnet becomes +2.5% and for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Channel Vas Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mathieu Castagnet: 82%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mathieu Castagnet: 74%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mathieu Castagnet: 43,723, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 40,128, level confidence: 77%.