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Mazen Hesham v Chris Simpson (Wed 20 Nov 2019)

Match won by Mazen Hesham. Result: 11-6,10-12,4-11,11-6,11-3.

Starting level for Mazen Hesham: 44,768, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Simpson: 36,566, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Mazen Hesham to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Chris Simpson.

Mazen Hesham won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mazen Hesham played 13% better than Chris Simpson in this match.

As Mazen Hesham has played below his allowed range at 42,521, his level reduction is 2.5% before damping. On the assumption that Mazen Hesham would normally have been playing at level 44,178 (based on typical behaviour), Chris Simpson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.2%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham changes to -2.1% and Chris Simpson changes to +2.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham becomes -0.8% and for Chris Simpson becomes +1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Channel Vas Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mazen Hesham: 93%, Chris Simpson: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mazen Hesham: 89%, Chris Simpson: 85%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mazen Hesham: 44,353, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Chris Simpson: 37,069, level confidence: 85%.