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Chris Simpson v James Peach (Wed 20 Nov 2019)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 11-4,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Chris Simpson: 37,580, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for James Peach: 17,491, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 115% better than James Peach.

Chris Simpson won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 94% better than James Peach in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Simpson was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 26,554 and 37,580 without affecting his level.

In this case, Chris Simpson played at level 33,953 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, James Peach is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 92%, James Peach: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 88%, James Peach: 88%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Simpson: 37,553, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for James Peach: 17,478, level confidence: 88%.