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Shahjahan Khan v Baptiste Masotti (Sun 17 Nov 2019)

Match won by Shahjahan Khan. Result: 5-11,12-10,11-7,7-11,11-2.

Starting level for Shahjahan Khan: 29,429, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 39,253, level confidence: 68%.
Baptiste Masotti to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Shahjahan Khan.

Shahjahan Khan won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shahjahan Khan played 11% better than Baptiste Masotti in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shahjahan Khan actually played at a level of 35,736 and Baptiste Masotti at a level of 32,326. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shahjahan Khan changes to +18% and Baptiste Masotti changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shahjahan Khan becomes +4% and for Baptiste Masotti becomes -3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open International Niort Venise Verte' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shahjahan Khan: 84%, Baptiste Masotti: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shahjahan Khan: 69%, Baptiste Masotti: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Shahjahan Khan: 30,620, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 37,897, level confidence: 68%.