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Baptiste Masotti v Sebastian Bonmalais (Sat 16 Nov 2019)

Match won by Baptiste Masotti. Result: 11-5,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 37,933, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Sebastian Bonmalais: 31,998, level confidence: 49%.
Baptiste Masotti to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Sebastian Bonmalais.

Baptiste Masotti won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Baptiste Masotti played 94% better than Sebastian Bonmalais in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Baptiste Masotti actually played at a level of 48,540 and Sebastian Bonmalais at a level of 25,006. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti changes to +16% and Sebastian Bonmalais changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti becomes +3.6% and for Sebastian Bonmalais becomes -5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open International Niort Venise Verte' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Baptiste Masotti: 87%, Sebastian Bonmalais: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Baptiste Masotti: 68%, Sebastian Bonmalais: 55%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 39,095, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Sebastian Bonmalais: 30,650, level confidence: 55%.