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Tarek Momen v Paul Coll (Fri 15 Nov 2019)

Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 11-8,11-3,11-4.

Starting level for Tarek Momen: 63,143, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Coll: 63,616, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Tarek Momen.

Tarek Momen won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played 120% better than Paul Coll in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tarek Momen actually played at a level of 94,006 and Paul Coll at a level of 42,730. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 49% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to +49% and Paul Coll changes to -45%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes +7.9% and for Paul Coll becomes -7.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Tarek Momen is limited to +4.6% and Paul Coll is limited to -4.6% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 90%, Paul Coll: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 61%, Paul Coll: 62%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tarek Momen: 66,097, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Paul Coll: 60,878, level confidence: 62%.