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Baptiste Masotti v Fabien Verseille (Fri 15 Nov 2019)

Match won by Baptiste Masotti. Result: 11-6,5-11,11-8,11-5.

Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 38,554, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Fabien Verseille: 23,669, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Baptiste Masotti to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Fabien Verseille.

Baptiste Masotti won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Baptiste Masotti played 26% better than Fabien Verseille in this match.

As Baptiste Masotti has played below his allowed range at 31,608, his level reduction is 6.4% before damping. On the assumption that Baptiste Masotti would normally have been playing at level 36,002 (based on typical behaviour), Fabien Verseille played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 10.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5% and 7.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti changes to -4.6% and Fabien Verseille changes to +7.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti becomes -1.5% and for Fabien Verseille becomes +2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open International Niort Venise Verte' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Baptiste Masotti: 87%, Fabien Verseille: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Baptiste Masotti: 77%, Fabien Verseille: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 37,933, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Fabien Verseille: 24,268, level confidence: 74%.