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Peter Creed v Jared Carter (Thu 14 Nov 2019)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 13-11,11-5,11-4.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 25,527, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Jared Carter: 16,423, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 55% better than Jared Carter.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 75% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 75% better than Jared Carter in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Creed actually played at a level of 27,086 and Jared Carter at a level of 15,478. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.9% and 4.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to +4.9% and Jared Carter changes to -4.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes +1.6% and for Jared Carter becomes -1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Wimbledon Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 80%, Jared Carter: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 75%, Jared Carter: 79%.

Final level for Peter Creed: 25,939, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Jared Carter: 16,153, level confidence: 79%.