Peter Creed v Jared Carter (Thu 14 Nov 2019)
Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 13-11,11-5,11-4.
Starting level for
Peter Creed:
25,527, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Jared Carter:
16,423, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing
55% better than Jared Carter.
Peter Creed won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 75% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played
75% better than Jared Carter in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Creed actually played at a level of
27,086 and Jared Carter at a level of
15,478. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.1% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.9% and 4.9% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to +4.9% and Jared Carter changes to -4.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes +1.6% and for Jared Carter becomes -1.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Wimbledon Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 80%, Jared Carter: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 75%, Jared Carter: 79%.
Final level for Peter Creed:
25,939, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Jared Carter:
16,153, level confidence: 79%.