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Marwan Elshorbagy v Mohamed Elshorbagy (Wed 13 Nov 2019)

Match won by Marwan Elshorbagy. Result: 11-6,2-11,11-6,3-11,11-8.

Starting level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 54,446, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 69,887, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 28% better than Marwan Elshorbagy.

Marwan Elshorbagy won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 11% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marwan Elshorbagy played 5% better than Mohamed Elshorbagy in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marwan Elshorbagy actually played at a level of 63,244 and Mohamed Elshorbagy at a level of 60,165. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marwan Elshorbagy changes to +14% and Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to -9.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marwan Elshorbagy becomes +3% and for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes -2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marwan Elshorbagy: 77%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marwan Elshorbagy: 66%, Mohamed Elshorbagy: 80%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 56,007, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 68,397, level confidence: 80%.