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Peter Creed v James Singh (Wed 13 Nov 2019)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-7,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 25,413, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for James Singh: 8,526, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 198% better than James Singh.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 94% better than James Singh in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Creed was taking it easy by anything up to 24%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 14,603 and 25,413 without affecting his level.

In this case, Peter Creed played at level 17,856 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Peter Creed would normally have been playing at level 19,264 (based on typical behaviour), James Singh played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 4.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to 0% and James Singh changes to +3.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes 0% and for James Singh becomes +1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Wimbledon Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 79%, James Singh: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 64%, James Singh: 68%.

Final level for Peter Creed: 25,413, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for James Singh: 8,678, level confidence: 68%.