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Paul Coll v Omar Mosaad (Tue 12 Nov 2019)

Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 9-11,14-12,11-9,6-11,16-14.

Starting level for Paul Coll: 65,382, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Omar Mosaad: 41,418, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 58% better than Omar Mosaad.

Paul Coll won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played 7% better than Omar Mosaad in this match.

As Paul Coll has played below his allowed range at 50,664, his level reduction is 14% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Coll would normally have been playing at level 61,520 (based on typical behaviour), Omar Mosaad played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to -11% and Omar Mosaad changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes -2.5% and for Omar Mosaad becomes +2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 80%, Omar Mosaad: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 66%, Omar Mosaad: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Coll: 63,758, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Omar Mosaad: 42,594, level confidence: 70%.