Diego Elias v Fares Dessouky (Tue 12 Nov 2019)
Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 10-12,11-8,11-6,11-4.
Starting level for
Diego Elias:
55,197, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Fares Dessouky:
56,832, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Fares Dessouky to win as he is currently playing
3% better than Diego Elias.
Diego Elias won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played
31% better than Fares Dessouky in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Elias actually played at a level of
64,117 and Fares Dessouky at a level of
48,926. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to +14% and Fares Dessouky changes to -16%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes +2.9% and for Fares Dessouky becomes -3.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 91%, Fares Dessouky: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 78%, Fares Dessouky: 73%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Diego Elias:
56,605, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Fares Dessouky:
55,150, level confidence: 73%.