Zahed Mohamed v Mostafa Asal (Mon 11 Nov 2019)
Match won by Zahed Mohamed. Result: 11-7,6-11,11-2,11-7.
Starting level for
Zahed Mohamed:
44,524, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mostafa Asal:
47,557, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing
7% better than Zahed Mohamed.
Zahed Mohamed won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Zahed Mohamed played
31% better than Mostafa Asal in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Zahed Mohamed actually played at a level of
52,751 and Mostafa Asal at a level of
40,140. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed changes to +18% and Mostafa Asal changes to -18%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Zahed Mohamed becomes +3.7% and for Mostafa Asal becomes -3.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Zahed Mohamed: 86%, Mostafa Asal: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Zahed Mohamed: 73%, Mostafa Asal: 72%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Zahed Mohamed:
46,010, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Mostafa Asal:
46,004, level confidence: 72%.