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Omar Mosaad v Syed Azlan Amjad (Mon 11 Nov 2019)

Match won by Omar Mosaad. Result: 11-5,11-2,11-6.

Starting level for Omar Mosaad: 41,646, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Syed Azlan Amjad: 11,109, level confidence: 49%.
Omar Mosaad to win as he is currently playing 275% better than Syed Azlan Amjad.

Omar Mosaad won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Omar Mosaad played 154% better than Syed Azlan Amjad in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Omar Mosaad was taking it easy by anything up to 32%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 19,217 and 41,646 without affecting his level.

In this case, Omar Mosaad played at level 28,245 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Syed Azlan Amjad is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Omar Mosaad changes to 0% and Syed Azlan Amjad changes to 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Omar Mosaad: 89%, Syed Azlan Amjad: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Omar Mosaad: 73%, Syed Azlan Amjad: 58%.

Final level for Omar Mosaad: 41,646, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Syed Azlan Amjad: 11,113, level confidence: 58%.