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Joel Makin v Mohamed Elsherbini (Mon 11 Nov 2019)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-3,6-11,11-9,14-12.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 54,634, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 31,540, level confidence: 68%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 73% better than Mohamed Elsherbini.

Joel Makin won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 20% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 23% better than Mohamed Elsherbini in this match.

As Joel Makin has played below his allowed range at 42,356, his level reduction is 8.9% before damping. On the assumption that Joel Makin would normally have been playing at level 50,193 (based on typical behaviour), Mohamed Elsherbini played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 14%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.7% and 10.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to -5.8% and Mohamed Elsherbini changes to +10.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes -1.6% and for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes +2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 88%, Mohamed Elsherbini: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 74%, Mohamed Elsherbini: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 53,679, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 32,413, level confidence: 69%.