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Abdulla Al-Tamimi v Mathieu Castagnet (Mon 11 Nov 2019)

Match won by Abdulla Al-Tamimi. Result: 12-10,11-8,11-8.

Starting level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 35,454, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Mathieu Castagnet: 43,792, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Mathieu Castagnet to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Abdulla Al-Tamimi.

Abdulla Al-Tamimi won all of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdulla Al-Tamimi played 39% better than Mathieu Castagnet in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdulla Al-Tamimi actually played at a level of 46,416 and Mathieu Castagnet at a level of 33,449. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to +27% and Mathieu Castagnet changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes +5.5% and for Mathieu Castagnet becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 71%, Mathieu Castagnet: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 54%, Mathieu Castagnet: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 37,241, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Mathieu Castagnet: 42,899, level confidence: 69%.