Tarek Momen v Mazen Hesham (Mon 11 Nov 2019)
Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 11-9,12-10,11-5.
Starting level for
Tarek Momen:
61,764, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mazen Hesham:
45,036, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing
37% better than Mazen Hesham.
Tarek Momen won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 42% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played
46% better than Mazen Hesham in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tarek Momen actually played at a level of
63,742 and Mazen Hesham at a level of
43,639. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.2% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 2.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to +2.7% and Mazen Hesham changes to -2.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes +1% and for Mazen Hesham becomes -0.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 87%, Mazen Hesham: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 85%, Mazen Hesham: 89%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Tarek Momen:
61,861, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Mazen Hesham:
44,923, level confidence: 89%.