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Miguel Rodriguez v Youssef Soliman (Sun 10 Nov 2019)

Match won by Miguel Rodriguez. Result: 11-6,9-11,11-9,11-8.

Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 48,664, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 37,467, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Youssef Soliman.

Miguel Rodriguez won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Miguel Rodriguez played 25% better than Youssef Soliman in this match.

In this case, Miguel Rodriguez played at level 47,115 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Miguel Rodriguez would normally have been playing at level 47,583 (based on typical behaviour), Youssef Soliman played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez changes to 0% and Youssef Soliman changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Miguel Rodriguez becomes 0% and for Youssef Soliman becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Miguel Rodriguez: 72%, Youssef Soliman: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Miguel Rodriguez: 70%, Youssef Soliman: 88%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 48,442, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Youssef Soliman: 37,651, level confidence: 88%.