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Mostafa Asal v Campbell Grayson (Sun 10 Nov 2019)

Match won by Mostafa Asal. Result: 12-10,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 46,712, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Campbell Grayson: 40,441, level confidence: 58%.
Mostafa Asal to win as he is currently playing 16% better than Campbell Grayson.

Mostafa Asal won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mostafa Asal played 70% better than Campbell Grayson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mostafa Asal actually played at a level of 56,670 and Campbell Grayson at a level of 33,335. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal changes to +15% and Campbell Grayson changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mostafa Asal becomes +3.2% and for Campbell Grayson becomes -4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mostafa Asal: 88%, Campbell Grayson: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mostafa Asal: 73%, Campbell Grayson: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mostafa Asal: 47,933, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Campbell Grayson: 39,057, level confidence: 63%.