Abdulla Al-Tamimi v Gregoire Marche (Sun 10 Nov 2019)
Match won by Abdulla Al-Tamimi. Result: 11-6,11-9,7-11,11-9.
Starting level for
Abdulla Al-Tamimi:
33,585, level confidence: 48%.
Starting level for
Gregoire Marche:
51,690, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing
54% better than Abdulla Al-Tamimi.
Abdulla Al-Tamimi won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdulla Al-Tamimi played
21% better than Gregoire Marche in this match. An upset!
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdulla Al-Tamimi actually played at a level of
45,920 and Gregoire Marche at a level of
37,805. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 37% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to +29% and Gregoire Marche changes to -14%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes +5.7% and for Gregoire Marche becomes -3.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 69%, Gregoire Marche: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 51%, Gregoire Marche: 67%.
A final adjustment of +0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi:
35,470, level confidence: 51%.
Final level for Gregoire Marche:
50,701, level confidence: 67%.