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Peter Creed v Joel Preece (Thu 14 Nov 2019)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-4,11-3,11-5.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 25,903, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joel Preece: 6,738, level confidence: 65%.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 284% better than Joel Preece.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 175% better than Joel Preece in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Creed was taking it easy by anything up to 33%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,534 and 25,903 without affecting his level.

In this case, Peter Creed played at level 18,530 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Joel Preece is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 87%, Joel Preece: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 73%, Joel Preece: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 25,864, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Joel Preece: 6,728, level confidence: 68%.