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Lewis Doughty v George Parker (Wed 13 Nov 2019)

Match won by George Parker. Result: 7-11,7-11,6-11.

Starting level for Lewis Doughty: 12,718, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for George Parker: 36,993, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
George Parker to win as he is currently playing 191% better than Lewis Doughty.

George Parker won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that George Parker played 65% better than Lewis Doughty in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that George Parker was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 20,309 and 36,993 without affecting his level.

In this case, George Parker played at level 24,386 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that George Parker would normally have been playing at level 28,338 (based on typical behaviour), Lewis Doughty played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 9.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George Parker changes to 0% and Lewis Doughty changes to +9.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George Parker becomes 0% and for Lewis Doughty becomes +2.8%.

Given Lewis Doughty's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for George Parker is 0% and for Lewis Doughty is +1.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George Parker: 85%, Lewis Doughty: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George Parker: 64%, Lewis Doughty: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Doughty: 12,968, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for George Parker: 37,086, level confidence: 64%.