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Chris Simpson v Adam Auckland (Wed 13 Nov 2019)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 11-6,13-11,11-5.

Starting level for Chris Simpson: 36,851, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Adam Auckland: 20,992, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 76% better than Adam Auckland.

Chris Simpson won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 59% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 58% better than Adam Auckland in this match.

In this case, Chris Simpson played at level 33,418 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Chris Simpson would normally have been playing at level 33,727 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Auckland played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to 0% and Adam Auckland changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes 0% and for Adam Auckland becomes 0%.

Given Adam Auckland's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Chris Simpson is 0% and for Adam Auckland is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 84%, Adam Auckland: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 80%, Adam Auckland: 84%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Simpson: 36,943, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Adam Auckland: 21,075, level confidence: 84%.