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Olli Tuominen v Tim Cornish (Sat 09 Nov 2019)

Match won by Olli Tuominen. Result: 11-9,15-13,10-12,11-7.

Starting level for Olli Tuominen: 31,845, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Tim Cornish: 9,159, level confidence: 68%.
Olli Tuominen to win as he is currently playing 248% better than Tim Cornish.

Olli Tuominen won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Olli Tuominen played 22% better than Tim Cornish in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Olli Tuominen was taking it easy by anything up to 29%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 15,861 and 31,845 without affecting his level.

As Olli Tuominen has played below his allowed range at 13,290, his level reduction is 19% before damping. On the assumption that Olli Tuominen would normally have been playing at level 22,475 (based on typical behaviour), Tim Cornish played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 42%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Olli Tuominen changes to -10% and Tim Cornish changes to +20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Olli Tuominen becomes -2.5% and for Tim Cornish becomes +5.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Seriespel 2019-2020' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Olli Tuominen: 81%, Tim Cornish: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Olli Tuominen: 48%, Tim Cornish: 49%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Olli Tuominen: 31,011, level confidence: 48%.
Final level for Tim Cornish: 9,651, level confidence: 49%.