Olli Tuominen v Frithiof Jacobsson (Sat 09 Nov 2019)
Match won by Olli Tuominen. Result: 11-6,11-2,11-3.
Starting level for
Olli Tuominen:
31,314, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for
Frithiof Jacobsson:
13,284, level confidence: 65%.
Olli Tuominen to win as he is currently playing
136% better than Frithiof Jacobsson.
Olli Tuominen won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Olli Tuominen played
200% better than Frithiof Jacobsson in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Olli Tuominen actually played at a level of
35,326 and Frithiof Jacobsson at a level of
11,775. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.2% and 8.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Olli Tuominen changes to +8.2% and Frithiof Jacobsson changes to -6.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Olli Tuominen becomes +2.2% and for Frithiof Jacobsson becomes -2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Seriespel 2019-2020' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Olli Tuominen: 74%, Frithiof Jacobsson: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Olli Tuominen: 65%, Frithiof Jacobsson: 71%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Olli Tuominen:
31,952, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Frithiof Jacobsson:
12,968, level confidence: 71%.