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Wong Chi Him v Evan Williams (Sun 10 Nov 2019)

Match won by Wong Chi Him. Result: 11-7,11-1,11-2.

Starting level for Wong Chi Him: 27,860, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Evan Williams: 20,675, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Wong Chi Him to win as he is currently playing 35% better than Evan Williams.

Wong Chi Him won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Wong Chi Him played 230% better than Evan Williams in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Wong Chi Him actually played at a level of 43,598 and Evan Williams at a level of 13,212. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 56% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 47% and 47% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Wong Chi Him changes to +47% and Evan Williams changes to -44%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Wong Chi Him becomes +8.9% and for Evan Williams becomes -8.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cairns International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Wong Chi Him is limited to +5.9% and Evan Williams is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Wong Chi Him: 88%, Evan Williams: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Wong Chi Him: 57%, Evan Williams: 58%.

A final adjustment of +0.7% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Wong Chi Him: 29,523, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Evan Williams: 19,967, level confidence: 58%.