Wong Chi Him v Ong Sai Hung (Fri 08 Nov 2019)
Match won by Wong Chi Him. Result: 11-5,11-3,11-3.
Starting level for
Wong Chi Him:
26,192, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Ong Sai Hung:
16,037, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Wong Chi Him to win as he is currently playing
63% better than Ong Sai Hung.
Wong Chi Him won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Wong Chi Him played
200% better than Ong Sai Hung in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Wong Chi Him actually played at a level of
35,498 and Ong Sai Hung at a level of
11,833. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Wong Chi Him changes to +27% and Ong Sai Hung changes to -24%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Wong Chi Him becomes +5.7% and for Ong Sai Hung becomes -5.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cairns International' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ong Sai Hung is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Wong Chi Him: 89%, Ong Sai Hung: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Wong Chi Him: 65%, Ong Sai Hung: 68%.
A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Wong Chi Him:
27,681, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Ong Sai Hung:
15,591, level confidence: 68%.