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Wong Chi Him v Seif El-Shenawy (Wed 06 Nov 2019)

Match won by Wong Chi Him. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Wong Chi Him: 26,264, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Seif El-Shenawy: 8,333, level confidence: 45%.
Wong Chi Him to win as he is currently playing 215% better than Seif El-Shenawy.

Wong Chi Him won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Wong Chi Him played 83% better than Seif El-Shenawy in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Wong Chi Him was taking it easy by anything up to 26%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 14,360 and 26,264 without affecting his level.

In this case, Wong Chi Him played at level 17,225 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Wong Chi Him would normally have been playing at level 19,420 (based on typical behaviour), Seif El-Shenawy played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Wong Chi Him changes to 0% and Seif El-Shenawy changes to +7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Wong Chi Him becomes 0% and for Seif El-Shenawy becomes +2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cairns International' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Wong Chi Him: 91%, Seif El-Shenawy: 67%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Wong Chi Him: 70%, Seif El-Shenawy: 51%.

Final level for Wong Chi Him: 26,264, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Seif El-Shenawy: 8,546, level confidence: 51%.