Wong Chi Him v Evan Williams (Sat 02 Nov 2019)
Match won by Wong Chi Him. Result: 9-11,11-6,11-3,11-7.
Starting level for
Wong Chi Him:
24,673, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Evan Williams:
21,465, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Wong Chi Him to win as he is currently playing
15% better than Evan Williams.
Wong Chi Him won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 56% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Wong Chi Him played
35% better than Evan Williams in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Wong Chi Him actually played at a level of
26,747 and Evan Williams at a level of
19,800. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Wong Chi Him changes to +7.8% and Evan Williams changes to -7.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Wong Chi Him becomes +2.2% and for Evan Williams becomes -2.3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Queensland Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Wong Chi Him: 90%, Evan Williams: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Wong Chi Him: 83%, Evan Williams: 84%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Wong Chi Him:
25,151, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Evan Williams:
21,093, level confidence: 84%.