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Raneem El Welily v Nouran Gohar (Thu 31 Oct 2019)

Match won by Raneem El Welily. Result: 2-11,11-7,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Raneem El Welily: 14,531, level confidence: 57%.
Starting level for Nouran Gohar: 14,306, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Raneem El Welily to win as she is currently playing 2% better than Nouran Gohar.

Raneem El Welily won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raneem El Welily played 22% better than Nouran Gohar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raneem El Welily actually played at a level of 15,942 and Nouran Gohar at a level of 13,040. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily changes to +9.6% and Nouran Gohar changes to -6.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily becomes +2.8% and for Nouran Gohar becomes -2.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raneem El Welily: 76%, Nouran Gohar: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raneem El Welily: 69%, Nouran Gohar: 83%.

A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raneem El Welily: 14,812, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Nouran Gohar: 14,008, level confidence: 83%.