SquashLevels calculations
Wong Chi Him v Damon Macmillan (Thu 31 Oct 2019)
Match won by Wong Chi Him. Result: 11-3,11-4,11-4.
Starting level for
Wong Chi Him:
24,010, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Damon Macmillan:
7,071, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Wong Chi Him to win as he is currently playing
240% better than Damon Macmillan.
Wong Chi Him won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Wong Chi Him played
200% better than Damon Macmillan in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Wong Chi Him was taking it easy by anything up to 29%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,239 and 24,010 without affecting his level.
In this case, Wong Chi Him played at level 21,213 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Damon Macmillan is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Wong Chi Him: 79%, Damon Macmillan: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Wong Chi Him: 74%, Damon Macmillan: 85%.
Final level for Wong Chi Him:
24,010, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Damon Macmillan:
7,071, level confidence: 85%.