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Paul Coll v Fares Dessouky (Wed 30 Oct 2019)

Match won by Paul Coll. Result: 11-6,5-11,11-8,9-11,11-9.

Starting level for Paul Coll: 67,916, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Fares Dessouky: 54,843, level confidence: 60%.
Paul Coll to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Fares Dessouky.

Paul Coll won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Paul Coll played 9% better than Fares Dessouky in this match.

As Paul Coll has played below his allowed range at 62,659, his level reduction is 5.2% before damping. On the assumption that Paul Coll would normally have been playing at level 66,907 (based on typical behaviour), Fares Dessouky played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.7% and 5.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Paul Coll changes to -3.6% and Fares Dessouky changes to +5.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Paul Coll becomes -1.2% and for Fares Dessouky becomes +1.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Paul Coll: 88%, Fares Dessouky: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Paul Coll: 82%, Fares Dessouky: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Paul Coll: 67,211, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Fares Dessouky: 55,818, level confidence: 72%.