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Mohamed Nabil v Shawn Simpson (Tue 29 Oct 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Nabil. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Mohamed Nabil: 14,769, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Shawn Simpson: 6,849, level confidence: 37%.
Mohamed Nabil to win as he is currently playing 116% better than Shawn Simpson.

Mohamed Nabil won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Nabil played 56% better than Shawn Simpson in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mohamed Nabil was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 10,821 and 14,769 without affecting his level.

As Mohamed Nabil has played below his allowed range at 10,768, his level reduction is 0.5% before damping. On the assumption that Mohamed Nabil would normally have been playing at level 12,642 (based on typical behaviour), Shawn Simpson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.3% and 5.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Nabil changes to 0% and Shawn Simpson changes to +5.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Nabil becomes -0.1% and for Shawn Simpson becomes +2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Barbados Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Nabil: 83%, Shawn Simpson: 60%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Nabil: 71%, Shawn Simpson: 51%.

Final level for Mohamed Nabil: 14,757, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Shawn Simpson: 7,011, level confidence: 51%.