SquashLevels calculations
Nour El Sherbini v Hollie Naughton (Mon 28 Oct 2019)
Match won by Nour El Sherbini. Result: 13-11,11-7,11-4.
Starting level for
Nour El Sherbini:
13,181, level confidence: 55%.
Starting level for
Hollie Naughton:
7,994, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Nour El Sherbini to win as she is currently playing
65% better than Hollie Naughton.
Nour El Sherbini won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 59% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nour El Sherbini played
58% better than Hollie Naughton in this match.
In this case, Nour El Sherbini played at level 12,610 and remained within her allowed range so her level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Hollie Naughton is considered to have not played better than expected and her level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nour El Sherbini: 74%, Hollie Naughton: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nour El Sherbini: 73%, Hollie Naughton: 88%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Nour El Sherbini:
13,110, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Hollie Naughton:
8,071, level confidence: 88%.