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Gregoire Marche v Iker Pajares Bernabeu (Mon 28 Oct 2019)

Match won by Gregoire Marche. Result: 11-5,11-7,10-12,4-11,11-1.

Starting level for Gregoire Marche: 52,087, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 40,419, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Gregoire Marche to win as he is currently playing 29% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu.

Gregoire Marche won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Gregoire Marche played 15% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu in this match.

As Gregoire Marche has played below his allowed range at 48,202, his level reduction is 3.6% before damping. On the assumption that Gregoire Marche would normally have been playing at level 50,995 (based on typical behaviour), Iker Pajares Bernabeu played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.1% and 4.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche changes to -3.1% and Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to +3.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Gregoire Marche becomes -1.1% and for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes +1.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Gregoire Marche: 84%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Gregoire Marche: 80%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 84%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregoire Marche: 51,492, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 41,039, level confidence: 84%.