Daryl Selby v Max Lee (Mon 28 Oct 2019)
Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 11-8, 11-9, 6-11, 11-9.
Starting level for Daryl Selby
, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Max Lee
, level confidence: 56%.
Expected winner: Max Lee as he is 3% better
than Daryl Selby.
Daryl Selby won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 18% better
than Max Lee in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daryl Selby actually played at a level of 28,184
and Max Lee at a level of 23,879
. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 10% to match this result.
Factoring in the respective confidence levels which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby would be +9% and for Max Lee would be -9%.
After applying damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes +3% and for Max Lee becomes -3%.
Apply match/event weighting which for 'PSA Egyptian Open' is 100% leaving the adjustment for Daryl Selby as +3% and for Max Lee as -3%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 80%, Max Lee: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 71%, Max Lee: 65%.
Final level for Daryl Selby: 26,243
, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Max Lee: 25,547
, level confidence: 65%.