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Ho Tze-Lok v Mariam Metwally (Sun 27 Oct 2019)

Match won by Ho Tze-Lok. Result: 8-11,11-5,11-6,12-10.

Starting level for Ho Tze-Lok: 6,428, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Mariam Metwally: 7,726, level confidence: 63%.
Mariam Metwally to win as she is currently playing 20% better than Ho Tze-Lok.

Ho Tze-Lok won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 31% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ho Tze-Lok played 27% better than Mariam Metwally in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ho Tze-Lok actually played at a level of 7,944 and Mariam Metwally at a level of 6,252. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ho Tze-Lok changes to +21% and Mariam Metwally changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ho Tze-Lok becomes +6.3% and for Mariam Metwally becomes -6.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ho Tze-Lok is limited to +5.6% and Mariam Metwally is limited to -5.3% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ho Tze-Lok: 79%, Mariam Metwally: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ho Tze-Lok: 64%, Mariam Metwally: 64%.

A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ho Tze-Lok: 6,763, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Mariam Metwally: 7,313, level confidence: 64%.