Raneem El Welily v Sana Ibrahim (Sun 27 Oct 2019)
Match won by Raneem El Welily. Result: 11-3,11-5,11-4.
Starting level for
Raneem El Welily:
14,009, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for
Sana Ibrahim:
6,079, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Raneem El Welily to win as she is currently playing
130% better than Sana Ibrahim.
Raneem El Welily won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raneem El Welily played
175% better than Sana Ibrahim in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raneem El Welily actually played at a level of
15,303 and Sana Ibrahim at a level of
5,565. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.2% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6% and 6% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily changes to +6% and Sana Ibrahim changes to -5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily becomes +2.1% and for Sana Ibrahim becomes -2.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raneem El Welily: 82%, Sana Ibrahim: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raneem El Welily: 75%, Sana Ibrahim: 82%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Raneem El Welily:
13,970, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Sana Ibrahim:
6,062, level confidence: 82%.