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Eain Yow Ng v Yahya Elnawasany (Sun 27 Oct 2019)

Match won by Eain Yow Ng. Result: 11-6,8-11,11-4,11-4.

Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 39,750, level confidence: 66%.
Starting level for Yahya Elnawasany: 16,673, level confidence: 67%.
Eain Yow Ng to win as he is currently playing 138% better than Yahya Elnawasany.

Eain Yow Ng won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 64% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eain Yow Ng played 38% better than Yahya Elnawasany in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Eain Yow Ng was taking it easy by anything up to 17%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 27,226 and 39,750 without affecting his level.

As Eain Yow Ng has played below his allowed range at 25,017, his level reduction is 8.8% before damping. On the assumption that Eain Yow Ng would normally have been playing at level 32,897 (based on typical behaviour), Yahya Elnawasany played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 20%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.6% and 12% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng changes to -5.6% and Yahya Elnawasany changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng becomes -1.7% and for Yahya Elnawasany becomes +3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eain Yow Ng: 81%, Yahya Elnawasany: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eain Yow Ng: 62%, Yahya Elnawasany: 62%.

Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 39,103, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Yahya Elnawasany: 17,224, level confidence: 62%.